There are just 23 arrest days between now and the ODS party congress on Nov. 2-4, or just three if you only count Mondays. David Rath, Vladimír Šiška, Milan Hojer and Marek Dalík were all arrested on Mondays (or late Sunday night), allowing the police to take maximum advantage of the weekly news cycle. One of the big questions now is whether Petr Nečas can parlay these heavily publicized arrests into a deal with the ODS rebels and President Václav Klaus that saves his rear end at the ODS congress. Nečas clearly senses that his chances are improving, otherwise he wouldn't have moved up the ODS event (which had been widely expected in Dec.). Klaus has been weakened by plastic pellets, and the rebels are looking more and more like self-serving saboteurs. Anything can happen, but we now give Nečas a 60% chance of pacifying the rebels and remaining in office longer than Klaus does.